Demographics and the International Office Markets; Consequences for Property Portfolios

Published in Journal of Real Estate Portfolio Management

This study examines the effects of demographic changes on the global office markets. Growth in the labor force, the ultimate driver of office demand, is slowing down in some countries and is con- tracting in others. Based on demographic forecasts, ex- pectations are formulated about the future shape of the office markets. The results suggest that office supply gen- erally reacts accurately to changes in demand, but that this will be much harder if demand contracts harder than the write-off rate for offices. If office developers fail to incorporate these ongoing demographic shifts ade- quately, office portfolios might soon be confronted with structurally high vacancies, decreasing rents and falling values.



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